Newsletter:
26 November 2023
What’s Going On:
Gold Back Above $2,000
It’s been a strange year for gold. Overall, it has traded fairly sideways but here we are again back above the $2,000 level and within a few percent of the all-time high.
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I would have to say that it doesn’t make sense to me why gold is so high – but you have to trade what you see, and I am long gold at the moment and wondering whether it will set fresh highs.
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Traditionally the price of gold does well in times of uncertainty. For example, concerns about the economy, high inflation, global unrest and a weaker US dollar. We definitely have varying degrees of all those factors at the moment but I can’t quite shake the feeling that the next major move for gold could be down.
GOLD: Weekly Candles
It can be seen from the chart above that over the last few years, whenever gold is above $2,000 it doesn’t stay there very long – is this time going to be any different? I don’t think it will be and am wondering about selling short – but at the moment I do have an open trade on gold, after buying in a week ago.
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That is a great example of the line:
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“Trade what you see not what you think”
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More on that below. I am in the trade from around $1,970 so I am quite happy for the price to move higher, and it did have a positive finish on Friday.
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I’m just not sure how much upside is left for gold at the moment. The all-time highs are in at $2,080 and a breakthrough here would be considered positive and perhaps the start of a new trend.
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But for me it still looks like gold is in this sideways range that has been the case for much of 2023. If we did see another failure to hold onto the $2,000+ levels, then I would be looking for a run back towards at least the mid-October lows around $1,900.
The Trading Course:
Black Friday, 25% Voucher
I have been running my Trading Course for almost three years now. Over that time, it has received 5-star trust pilot reviews. I’ve always wanted to be open and show the reality of trading by publicly trading my own account at various points over the last 12 months.
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Most trading courses are poor. They are run by those who are great at marketing but probably don’t actually trade themselves. Mine is different for a few reasons.
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I do actually trade. If you have seen any of my YouTube content, I have talked about my performance over various periods – for example this video here.
I don’t sell an unrealistic dream of “work five minutes a day and then just put your feet up on some tropical island”.
Successful trading is hard – we only have to look at the failure rate to know that. But it is possible to be consistently profit – for most, it takes some guidance from someone who knows what they are doing.
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I’m always on hand for support. All of the course content is provided directly by me - I don’t delegate to some “junior trader” trainee to do the work.
There is a WhatsApp group as part of the course package – or that you can join separately if you would like.
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As it is Black Friday Weekend (or Cyber Monday Eve, depending on your preference) then I thought I would offer a promotion just like almost every business on the globe.
If you use the voucher:
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That will give you 25% off any of the course packages, or your first month’s WhatsApp subscription.
You can see the details on the website here for courses and here for the WhatsApp group.
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In my experience, most people last about a year or so when trading and losing and then eventually give it up. I expect that there will be a similar stat for those of you on the newsletter list who are perhaps struggling.
I do think my course can change that for you. I do this every day; I have done it for 20 years+ and I know (most of) the mistakes.
As usual if there are any questions let me know by replying to the newsletter email.
Trading Tip:
Trade What You See, Not What You Think
These days, thanks in part to social media, everyone is an instant expert on everything. But having strong opinions can really cloud our trading – and my opinion on gold is a great example of that.
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I don’t think gold should be above $2,000. There is no real reason I can see for it to be near its all-time high. I don’t have any real rational reason for this – and if I had stuck with it, I could have missed one of my best trades this month.
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It might be a difficult thing to accept for newer traders, but our opinion counts for little, if anything, when it comes to financial markets. Put bluntly, the market does not care what you think about its future direction and will do whatever it is going to do.
One of the points along the journey of being a consistently profitable trader is the requirement to PARK OUR EGO!
We need to learn to go with the flow of the market and not expect it to bend to our own view.
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Which brings me to gold.
I have found it a confusing market this year and have only had a few trades on gold during 2023. I don’t understand why it is so high and that has perhaps clouded my judgment on occasion.
It was this nagging thought that almost stopped me from doing this trade the other week – but it was such a clear-cut opportunity to buy into the trend that I did it despite myself.
GOLD: Hourly Candles
The price of gold had been moving higher for a few days and dipped back on Monday.
For me this looked like a classic “buy the dip opportunity” so I did the trade with a sensible stop-loss and so far it has worked out ok.
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It’s a great reminder for me that all I can do is trade what is in front of me – not my own prejudices or beliefs about the market. I think it is a really important discipline to have – not to try and force your own will on a market, but to try and get in step with it.
Like a lot of things in trading this is easier said than done – but having a strategy with actual fixed rules (these do not have to be complicated) can really help to take the emotion out of any decision to buy or sell.