Newsletter:
18 November 2023
What’s Going On:
Are Stock Markets About To Plunge Once More?
It’s been an interesting year for stock markets – the ones I tend to watch are the US S&P500 and NASDAQ100. These have seen some great recoveries over the last three weeks, but are we about to see these rallies stall?
There are some key levels to watch this week.
It has certainly been a good year overall for stock markets. If we take an index like the NASDAQ100 as of Friday's close, then it is up by more than 40% for the year so far.
NASDAQ100: Daily Candles
I think we are in for a really interesting last six weeks or so of 2023. This index is back to where it ran out of steam in the summer. Back then, the market slid by almost a couple of thousand points into the late October low. It is from this low that we have had the sizeable recovery.
I am a big fan of previous highs and lows in markets – particularly on daily charts. The highs from July marked a significant shift in sentiment back then for stock markets. The theory is that levels that have been important in the past could well be important again in the future.
Well, here we are. If someone was looking for an opportunity to sell-short US indices I think the next week could be interesting. I am quite tempted to trade up here and look for at least a correction in the rise that has been in place over the last few weeks. It should be an interesting few days ahead and as usual you can read all about my thoughts as the week unfolds, in the WhatsApp group I run – details below.
Trading Tip:
How To Not Be A Loser
Most people lose when trading. This is an unavoidable truth that will never change. Most people should not be trading as, with respect, they really don’t have much of a clue as to what they are doing, let alone the absolute basics of a trading plan such as risk control.
But there are some changes we can make that give us a fighting chance. You can watch two invitation-only webinars I did on these topics.
I ran these webinars over the past month or so.
The first one was:
If you could wave a magic wand and change one thing to do with your trading, what would it be?
The second was addressing the issue of losers:
If so many fail at trading, then what should we be doing differently?
If you would like to watch these, then just reply to the newsletter email or email me directly:
and I will send you the links to the recording.
I am running these webinars as part of a new partnership with my new preferred trading broker.
There will be plenty more of these exclusively for our clients – you can open an account by going here and ensure you do not miss out on these regular sessions that will be held once per month.
What Am I Trading:
Despite A Wobble, The Natural Gas Recovery Continues
There has rarely been a dull moment in the Natural Gas market over the past three years. It has gone from lows around $1.60, to as high as $10 and then nearly all the way back again. But a recovery is underway – is it time to buy the dip?
I’ve found Natural Gas to be a fascinating market over the years. I think a lot of money has been lost trying to call the top on the way up, and the bottom on the slide down from the summer 2022 highs. But, since May of this year, a recovery has been going on.
Natural Gas: Daily Candles
As a trend follower, if I was to do anything on Natural Gas at the moment then I would be looking to buy the dip.
As of Friday's close, the price has dropped by around 15% from the October highs. So far at least this hasn’t changed the trend so I am wondering if this market will see strength return over the next few days and that could be the buying opportunity.
I did a video on it this week and - although the market has dropped since then - all the points still stand for me when it comes to a potential trade. You can watch it here.
WhatsApp Group:
Open To All
Earlier this year I started a WhatsApp group for those who had attended my trading course. This was designed to be a channel where I would update my thoughts on the markets every day and answer any questions. This is now available for all to join.
Here’s a screenshot of a typical update from me – this was a previous update. I talk about trades I have open; trades I am thinking about and other interesting markets.
If you would like to try the WhatsApp group for a month to see how it could help your trading approach, then follow this link, select WhatsApp Group and use the code EMAIL for a 20% discount off the first month’s subscription.
That's it for this week.
Good luck with your trading.
David